WEEKLY CONFLICT EARLY WARNING EARLY RESPONSE CONTEXUALIZED BRIEF COVERING FROM 27TH JAN TO 1ST FEB 2024

1.0. Introduction.

The KECOSCE (www.kecosce.org)  Early Warning platform offers an array of interactive and interconnected tools for tracking community safety and crime prevention efforts in the Coast of Kenya. As from January 2024, KECOSCE has updated our EWER indicators to the current and emerging peace and security environment in the Coast region.  We received financial support from TetraTech under the REINVENT program to improve on the system and deepen conflict and security analysis with a view to providing both the state and non-state actors with analytical reports that can support proactive responses through improved stakeholder engagement in crime prevention and peacebuilding in Kisauni and Nyali sub-counties of Mombasa County and beyond.

During the last week covering 27^th January to 1^ST February, 2024, we received a total of 23 event reports.  This is an increase of 29.4% from the previous week which indicates either improved reporting of incidences by the public to authorities and the EWER system or increased security volatility by end of the month.  The reports were categorized as follows:

1. Lethal/Non-lethal violence: 7 Events.
2. Legal Action and arrests; 5 Events.
3. Threats :5 Events
4. Polarization; 3 Events
5. Protects 3 events
6. Sexual and Gender based violence 2 events
7. Disasters 1 event

2.0 SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS PER COUNTY.

1.    MOMBASA

For Mombasa the data we had was from Kisauni, and Nyali sub counties. It was recorded as follows;

Lethal/Non-lethal violence

1. A woman was assaulted by another at Leisure area in Nyali. The survivor was rushed to Makadara hospital for treatment.
2. One youth was hacked with a machete over supremacy beefs in Maweni area. The area assistant chief is also reported to have been assaulted by some of the gang. Local leaders appealed for immediate security intervention.
3. Another individual was beaten by a mob on January 28, 2024, in the Mlaleo area of Nyali before being taken to the police. The suspect was reportedly apprehended after attempting to steal a water tank by jumping over a fence.
4. A gang attacked and robbed a water vendor in the Bayusuf area. Allegedly, the suspects are part of the gang members who were arrested during an operation in the area and subsequently released on cash bond.
5. A 14-year-old girl who was defiled 9 months ago gave birth in Mlaleo, Nyali. The incident was reported by the area chief who was notified of the incident. The case is reported to have been resolved through a Kangaroo court. The police have launched a manhunt for the perpetrator who is at large. The OCS Kongowea appealed to security and peace actors to aid in preventing such incidences through collaboration.
6. A 24 year old Technical University of Mombasa student was arrested and police recovered 300grammes of heroin from his house in Mishomoni area. The anti-narcotics police estate the drug to have a street value of Ksh.1.2million.

PROTESTS: Hundreds of women leaders and activities held peaceful demonstrations in the streets of Mombasa decrying the rising cases of Femicide.  The leaders called on government institutions to take stern legal and policy actions to stop attacks on women.  There were reported over 21 cases countrywide within January alone.  These attacks have targeted young women by people they know or are in intimate relationship.  The women key message was to the public to stop victim judgements and come up with strategies to empower the male citizens to protect women. Same protests were held in Kilifi and Kwale counties.

Polarization/Dangerous speech; Village administrators of Mlaleo raised concern over increased polarized and inflammatory political narratives in their area. Several boda boda stages, maskanis and areas around religious institutions are reported to be criticizing and shaming the government and those who voted it in to the office. The perpetrators of narratives are mostly former politicians or campaign officers.

THREAT TO SECURITY;

1. Our system detected three scam alerts originating from Mombasa this week. We anticipate a rising trend in attempts to defraud unsuspecting citizens, including fake calls, messages, and phishing links. In one incident, three individuals reported receiving unauthorized pop-up Mpesa notifications prompting them to enter their PIN numbers to initiate transactions. Additionally, scammers infiltrated some WhatsApp groups and impersonated group members to deceive others into clicking on alleged phishing transaction links, purportedly offering bank promotions.

THREAT TO HEALTH; Mombasa county issued an alert over the outbreak of the Conjunctivitis commonly known as the Red Eye. So far, over 1000 cases have been reported and learning institutions are the most affected by the disease. The County Department of Health Services highlighted the concerning rise in incidences of this highly contagious and infectious disease.

Legal action; The 8 Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) officials who were arrested last week arraigned in court on fraud of over KSH. 62 million.

EARLY WARNINGS:

1. Under-reporting of S-GBV in Mombasa. Our peace monitors have raised concern over the escalating violence in families including domestic dispute, defilement and sodomy. Some of the perpetrators are partners, relatives and friends. This is especially being encouraged due to under-reporting of incidences of GBV. The most affected areas include Manyani and Junda in Kisauni, and Mlaleo in Nyali.
2. The release of S-GBV perpetrators on affordable cash bond is undermining access ti justice for victims. GBV actors have raised concern over the indiscriminate release of violators on cash bonds as low as KSH 50,000. This further exposes survivors and other vulnerable groups to violence
3. Our analysis of the reports received from Maweni location indicate prevalence of juvenile gangs. This further indicates occurrence of violence related to supremacy battles and interpersonal conflicts between members of the gangs. This highlights underlying tensions and rivalries within the community. Some of gang members are reported to come from other areas such as Kisauni and Likoni who are being hosted by the locals.
4. Scammers may continue to refine their tactics and develop new methods to deceive individuals. This could involve leveraging emerging technologies or exploiting vulnerabilities in existing systems to perpetrate scams more effectively.
5. To combat the spread of the infection, Mombasa County is advising citizens to strictly adhere to hygiene measures. This includes frequent handwashing with soap and water for a minimum of 20 seconds, refraining from touching or rubbing eyes and face, and avoiding the sharing of personal items such as towels, pillowcases, eye drops, or makeup.
6. Reports received from community engagement forums indicate that a land grabbing syndicate is prospecting on a parcel of land in Nyali that is believed to be nearing the end of its lease agreement. This prospecting is likely to lead in invasion, and illegal settlement into the piece of land in the coming months. The EWER system is still investigating the matter for more details before sharing with the respective duty bearers.

1.    KWALE COUNTY

POLARIZATION/DANGERAOUS SPEECH; We conducted comprehensive social media monitoring, including platforms such as Facebook, X, and WhatsApp. Our analysis revealed significant discontent among netizens and residents of Kwale County following the remarks made by Honorable Raila Odinga during the ODM recruitment drive in Kwale. At a rally in Matuga, the former Prime Minister reportedly used defamatory language against the Kwale governor, referring to her as the wife of a CS from Kwale. This deduction was drawn from the examination of approximately 20 Facebook comments on the Kwale political forum, particularly in response to a letter titled ‘Request for Apology’ addressed to H.E. Raila Odinga and posted on Facebook by the county government.

Threat to security; Juvenile gangs have risen in Ng’ombeni area in Matuga sub county. Residents live in suspicion as parental negligence is highlighted as key contributor to prevalence of criminal elements in the families.

EARLY WARNINGS: Based on the analysis of conversations surrounding careless utterances and inflammatory remarks by politicians, we observe a high potential for polarization and division within the community, which could escalate into confrontations or unrest if left unaddressed. We therefore call upon political accountability among leaders and stern action from National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC).

2.    KILIFI COUNTY.

Lethal/Non-lethal violencE: Three female Pwani university students were mugged around Mkoroshoni area. This comes as student body expressed profound concerns regarding the rising incidents of mugging and robbery, with a particular impact on female students during nighttime hours. The students underscored the imperative for safety initiatives. Furthermore, they have also been the victims of cyberbullying.

Protests; Protests were recorded in Kilifi town. Youths, women, businesspeople, CSOs and some officials from the county government joined hands to denounce the escalating incidents of femicide in Kenya. The peaceful demonstration aimed to galvanize communities into action against femicide, underscoring its significance as a critical societal issue.

Threat to security; Kilifi residents remains vulnerable to violent extremism. This week, Timiza Youth Initiative held a campaign on prevention and countering violent extremism among the Pwani University students. Additionally, the over thirty (30) students were reached with sensitization messages on public safety and cyber bullying.

DISASTERS:  At least 15 girls were rushed to hospital over panic attacks following a fire incident at the St Johns Girls High School in Kaloleni, Kilifi County. They were treated and discharged from a local hospital, officials said. The fire destroyed a dormitory and other valuable. Police said no injuries were reported in the Wednesday night incident. The fire left 110 girls displaced. According to police, the fire broke out as the students were in their classes for preps. The inferno was contained by fire engines that arrived there minutes later.

Legal Action;

1. The ministry of interior declared the Good News International Ministries to be an organized criminal group. This comes as the church leader Paul Mackenzie and 38 others are being held at Shimo La Tewa awaiting the hearing on their bond application on 15th February, 2024.
2. The Ethics and Anti- Corruption Commission (EACC) arrested the Assistant County Commissioner of Ganze Sub-County. He was accused of stealing and selling relief food designated for needy residents in Tana North Sub-County in Tana-River County. EACC is set to arraign him in court.
3. The ministry of internal security and administration affairs directed all short-term accommodation rentals, including Airbnbs,to promptly register with the Tourism Regulatory Authority (TRA). This move is expected to regulate the operation of the facilities as well as to combat femicides.

EARLY WARNING:

The protests in Kilifi town denouncing femicide indicate growing public outrage and concern over the escalating incidents of gender-based violence and femicide in Kenya. We forecast increased suspicion and confusion among members of the public concerning accommodation businesses. This reflects a heightened awareness of gender-based violence as a critical societal issue and signals a demand for action from authorities and communities. We call upon collaborative efforts in promoting awareness on SGBV.

3. TANA RIVER COUNTY

The government launched a new registration method that will eliminate the issuance of physical disability cards for persons with disabilities. This will alleviate the burden of visiting county disability offices for registration purposes. For a long time PWDs in Tana Delta have lamented of the tedious process they undergo to obtain disability cards. The Council will conduct extensive public awareness campaigns to inform individuals about this updated registration process.

CSOs and local authorities raised concern over the alarming increase in defilement cases in Bura and Chana Chena in Tana River county. Fathers remain the major sexual predators where some survivors have conceived for their fathers. Two girls are taking care of children they conceived with their fathers after they were defiled.

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