Key Highlights

1. Tensions Between Herders and Farmers Escalate in Mikinduni, Tana River County.
2. Interlinked Socio-Economic and Governance Deficits Fueling Radicalization Risks in Magarini and Malindi.
3. Looming Livelihoods Crisis in the Tana Delta as Ocean Tides Contaminate River Tana.
4. Rising Crime and Civil Unrest Heighten Security Concerns Across the Coastal Region.

RISK TABLE

Tana River and Kilifi counties remain the key hotspots to watch for the coming week, exhibiting the highest volatility across the coastal region. In Tana River, escalating herder–farmer tensions in Mikinduni, ongoing campaigns in Chewani ward coupled with the worsening saline intrusion crisis in the Tana Delta, have deepened livelihood vulnerabilities and heightened the risk of violent confrontations or recruitment to VE groups Meanwhile, in Kilifi particularly Magarini and Malindi rising youth unemployment, drug abuse, and weak governance structures continue to fuel radicalization and violent extremism risks. Political tensions ahead of the by-elections, coupled with increasing mob justice and mistrust between police and boda boda operators, have further eroded public confidence in security institutions. The convergence of resource-based conflicts, economic distress, and extremist mobilization makes these two counties which are in close proximity highly volatile and in urgent need of sustained multi-agency coordination, community engagement, and preventive action.

Introduction.

The KECOSCE (www.kecosce.org) Early Warning and Early Response mechanism is an interactive and interconnected system designed to track community safety and crime prevention efforts across the Coastal region of Kenya. The platform operates through a network of community volunteers known as peace monitors, who continuously scan their surroundings for potential conflict indicators.  The monitors transmit this information in the form of data to the situation room at KECOSCE through mobile phones and social media pages like WhatsApp.

The system also triangulates information received by monitoring the social media platforms. The reports are first verified before being transmitted to the target actors for immediate action or response to prevent any escalation to violence.

All reports are verified before being shared with relevant actors for prompt response and violence prevention.

Summary of reports and action.

This week, KECOSCE EWER received 18 alerts disaggregated into 5 key EWER indicators of conflicts that the security team and stakeholders should monitor and look into to prevent escalation to violence. These include 4 threats to security, 2 SGBV, 4 resource-based conflicts, and one case reported under protests, polarization, and climate-related risks. In addition, 5 cases of lethal and non-lethal violence were reported.

RESPONSE TO ALERTS

All the reports were disseminated to the response actors. Out the 18, Four (4) alerts have been responded to and the situation presumably restored to normalcy. Ten others still under action and require multi-agency collaboration. 4 cases escalated into violence leading to loss of life and the security agencies are investigating the matter to prevent resurgence.

The state actors, including the police and NGAOs, responded to 15 reports while the local actors, including the peace structures, responded to two (2) reports, meanwhile Kenya meteorological department responded to one (1) report based on EWER analysis.

Key issues for the week.

1. Tensions Between Herders and Farmers Escalate in Mikinduni, Tana River County.

Rising tensions have been observed between herders and farmers in Mikinduni, particularly in the areas of Fumbo la Magoji and Weche. Peace monitors report that herders, some armed with spears, have occasionally been sighted grazing livestock within banana farms, citing the need to protect their herds.

KECOSCE’s Early Warning and Early Response (EWER) analysis attributes the animosity to recurrent livestock theft, allegedly involving members of the farming communities. Community consultations further indicate that certain butcheries and slaughterhouses may be colluding with livestock thieves, thereby fueling mistrust and heightening hostilities between the two groups

ACTION: The area Chief was promptly informed by a peace monitor to take urgent intervention measures. The Peace-Galole Committee Chairperson and members were advised to intervene immediately to prevent escalation and possible violence.

KECOSCE thought REINVENT convened a sub county security and intelligence committee in Hola, where the issue was discussed, and stakeholders led by the DCC Tana River sub county and joint plans were put in place to address the concerns.

EWER Analysis.

Monitoring reports indicate that the standoff has persisted for the past two weeks, with the situation remaining volatile and unpredictable. The risk of violent confrontation is high if timely and coordinated interventions are not sustained. Emerging insights point to an illegal poaching dimension that complicates response efforts, as some stock thieves allegedly disguise stolen goat meat as game meat. Goats have become the primary target due to the close resemblance of their meat to that of wild deer.

The key conflict drivers are livestock theft, land encroachment, and the economic incentives linked to the illicit livestock trade, which underscore the need for a multi-agency and community-centered response, coupled with enhanced monitoring to prevent further escalation.

2. Interlinked Socio-Economic and Governance Deficits Fueling Radicalization Risks in Magarini and Malindi.

Community dialogues on preventing violent extremism (PVE) in Magarini and Malindi conducted by KECOSCE this week, demonstrated that social, economic, and governance challenges are increasingly converging to render localities vulnerable to radicalization. The deteriorating situation among idle youths and drug abuse has bred hopelessness and the decay of the social fabric. This is, however, further aggravated by the disempowerment of youth and women, through unemployment, early pregnancies, and dropout from school, which constitute a large proportion of frustration and exclusion. Many mention sidelining from important government programs such as NYOTA. Distrust between communities and security agencies due to perceived corruption and injustice puts a dent in cooperation and sharing of information. Simultaneously, the breakdown of families and eroding community cohesion leaves large numbers of youths without guidance or a sense of belonging, making them vulnerable to extremism.

With this backdrop, there is the need for urgent and concerted efforts in addressing the issues simultaneously. Priority measures include; Sustained education on access to opportunities for youth empowerment and livelihoods, strengthening family and community support systems by tapping into the influence of opinion leaders such as the religious and political classes, and promoting civic and peace education to build resilience against extremist ideologies. Trust among security agencies, therefore, should be rebuilt based on accountability, transparency, and community-based policing. And collaboration between the government, civil society, faith leaders, and development partners will be key to mitigating risks of radicalization and establishing sustainable peace in Kilifi County.

Actions recorded: The President signed into law a Cybercrime Amendment bill of 2024 that, if implemented, will enable the government to regulate the publishing of violence-related content online by pulling down harmful content before it reaches vulnerable citizens through digital spaces. Currently, the bill implementation has been challenged by the court, awaiting a decision to establish its legality.

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