Key Highlights

• 3 crime and physical violence events recorded by KECOSCE EWER during this week.
• 7 climate and resource-based conflicts where over 2000 families affected by heavy rains through flooding, infrastructure risks, and public health concerns in coastal Kenya.
• 4 events of political tension recorded as shifting alliances and grassroots mobilization reconfigure Coastal Kenya’s political landscape.
• 2 alerts on VE and radicalization risks recorded as use of excessive force by the police increase threat of radicalization.
• 2 fatalities and 2 injuries reported from escalated conflicts such as assaults, violent crimes, and floods in the coastal region of Kenya.
• Over 5 million residents of the coastal region exposed to political tension, climate-induced and resource-based conflicts, violent crimes and radicalization to VE.
• 1 case of SGBV reported involving child abduction and heinous murder in Mishomoroni that sparked community fears over safety in Kisauni.

Introduction.

The KECOSCE (www.kecosce.org) is an interactive and interconnected system designed to track community safety and crime prevention efforts across the Coastal region of Kenya. The platform operates through a network of community volunteers known as peace monitors, who continuously scan their surroundings for potential conflict indicators. The monitors transmit this information in the form of data to the situation room at KECOSCE through mobile phones and social media pages like WhatsApp. The system also monitors social media platforms to triangulate incoming data. The system also triangulates information received by monitoring the social media platforms. The reports are first verified before being transmitted to the target actors for immediate action or response to prevent any escalation to violence. All reports are verified before being shared with relevant actors for prompt response and violence prevention.

County volatility.

Summary of reports
This week, KECOSCE participated in a Community–Security Sector Dialogue on Prevention and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) organized by the National Centre on Counter-Terrorism (NCTC) in Kilifi county. The engagement sought to map out VE drivers, including the historical land injustices and grievances, lack of job opportunities for the youths, trust deficit in the police service and poor governance and marginalization were mapped. In Kilifi, these issues are evident in areas such as Ganze, Kilifi North, Mtwapa, Chonyi, and Magarini. Community actors and the state deliberated on effective prevention of violent extremism through Early Warning and Early Response to radicalization indicators.

During this reporting period, KECOSCE EWER recorded 19 reports from the peace monitors and the public. These issues were disaggregated into 7 key EWER indicators of conflicts that the security team and stakeholders should monitor and look into to prevent conflict vulnerability and radicalization for violent extremism. Key issues for the week.

Key issues for the week.

1. Security incidents and terrorism alerts raise concerns over militant threats in Kenya.

Kenya continues to face persistent security threats linked to Al-Shabaab militant activity, particularly in border counties in northeastern Kenya, where the group frequently targets security forces and critical infrastructure. On 13 March 2026, six police officers were injured after their vehicle struck an improvised explosive device (IED) along the Elwak–Wargadud road in Mandera County, an area that has repeatedly experienced roadside bomb attacks attributed to suspected militants operating near the Kenya–Somalia border. Such attacks have also been reported in the coastal region, especially in Lamu and Tana River, which reflects a continued pattern of asymmetric tactics used by Al-Shabaab, including roadside explosives targeting patrol vehicles and transport corridors used by security agencies. Such incidents are commonly intended to disrupt security operations, restrict state mobility, and project the group’s operational presence in frontier regions. Separately, in Mombasa County, airport operations were temporarily halted after authorities identified an abandoned bag at Moi International Airport, triggering precautionary counter-terrorism protocols. The discovery prompted an immediate evacuation of the area and deployment of a bomb disposal unit, leading to the temporary suspension of airport operations until the threat assessment was completed. Although no explosive device was ultimately reported, the incident underscores continued vigilance by security agencies in protecting strategic infrastructure and transport hubs. Social media users shared images and commentary during the evacuation, with posts reflecting public anxiety but also support for the swift response by security personnel.

2. Alleged police assault and irregular arrest procedure reported in Tarasaa

There was an alleged police assault and arrest under suspected mistaken identity reported in Tarasaa, Tana River County on 16th March 2026. According to our monitors, a meat vendor was reportedly assaulted by police officers despite presenting identification to verify his identity. The individual was subsequently taken into custody; however, preliminary information indicates that he was booked at Odha station in Tarasaa, raising concerns regarding adherence to standard arrest and detention procedures. Our efforts to get confirmation and feedback from the state actors including the local chief and the police in charge were unsuccessful. Such incidents, if verified, may heighten perceptions of police misconduct and procedural irregularities, undermining public trust in security institutions. In areas where community–police relations are already fragile, this can create grievances and a sense of injustice, which are key drivers of vulnerability to violent extremism. Reduced trust in law enforcement may also lead to lower community cooperation in reporting threats, creating operational gaps that can be exploited by extremist actors to gain sympathy, recruit, or operate with reduced scrutiny

3. Shifting Alliances and Grassroots Mobilization Reconfigure Coastal Kenya’s Political Landscape

Political dynamics across Kenya’s coastal region continue to evolve as shifting alliances, grassroots mobilization, and emerging leadership rivalries reshape the political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections. Political actors across Kilifi, Mombasa, and Kwale counties are increasingly repositioning themselves within national political coalitions while simultaneously consolidating local support bases.

• In Kilifi County, tensions have been rising following criticism directed at Senate Speaker Amason Jeffa Kingi over perceived attempts to align the Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). While no formal announcement has been made regarding the party’s dissolution or merger, Kingi’s increasing public support for the national administration has fueled speculation that the Coast-based party may be gradually losing its political independence. These developments have coincided with internal fractures within PAA, including recent defections of party officials and supporters where over 300 members, including senior party figures such as the Secretary-General and Ganze MP Kenneth defected from the party.
• In a related political shift, Ruth Bendera, an official at the National Government Affirmative Action Fund (NGAAF) in the office of the Kilifi Woman Representative, announced that she had left UDA to join the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
• Meanwhile, reports from Malindi, Magarini, Kilifi North, and Rabai indicate increasing political mobilization characterized by ethnic messaging, factional competition, and heightened rivalry between political actors. Such developments appear to be contributing to localized political polarization as early positioning ahead of the next electoral cycle intensifies.
• In Kwale County, Cabinet Secretary for Mining Hassan Joho has intensified grassroots engagement activities, including the donation of a Probox vehicle to women groups and the awarding of financial support to youth football clubs. Political observers interpret these activities as part of broader efforts to consolidate influence in the county, where Joho’s mobilization is unfolding alongside the political influence of Kwale Governor Fatuma Achani. The developments reflect ongoing competition for political dominance in the coastal region, with Joho positioning himself as a central political figure in regional politics and increasingly projecting a role in future national political negotiations.
• In Mombasa, within ODM, internal dynamics continue to draw attention following reports of factional divisions between groups associated with Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and veteran party leader Oburu Oginga. However, ODM Deputy Party Leader and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir has publicly dismissed claims that the party is fracturing, insisting that the party remains intact. Despite these assurances, the Linda Mwananchi faction linked to Sifuna has announced plans to hold a series of political rallies across the coastal region of Kenya after the conclusion of the Ramadan holy month, signaling continued internal mobilization within the party.

4. Transnational Narcotics Trafficking and Local Gang Networks Heighten Security Concerns Along Kenya’s Coast.

Drug trafficking is still a major problem in the coastal region of Kenya, and it’s making the situation there even more unstable. To tackle this, security agencies conducted several operations to disrupt the illegal trade networks in Likoni Sub-County.

• Recently, a team of security personnel from different agencies, including the DCI Mombasa, Kenya Police, NACADA, and KRA, worked together to arrest two suspects in Shika Adabu. The suspects were found with heroin and other narcotic substances worth around Ksh 4.6 million, which is a significant haul. This operation was made possible by reliable intelligence gathering, demonstrating the security commitment to responding to drug and substance abuse menace in the region.
• In a separate operation in Corner Mpya Estate, three suspects were arrested while operating an illegal alcohol distillation site. Authorities recovered distilling equipment, counterfeit KRA stickers, and several bottles of suspected illicit alcohol.

Criminal gangs are reorganizing and suspected to be planning to take advantage of political activities after the Month of Ramadhan and Eid festivities . Political activity is expected to increase after that period with major rallies set to be held.

• On March 8, a group of about ten young people, armed and furious, stormed a shop in the Freretown area of Kisauni, vandalising and stealing stuff of unestablished worth. This happened amid social, economic and political pressure emanating from the memebers of the public following the transfer of the famous methadone clinic from Freretown to Mtwapa. For a long time, cases of crime and violence have been attributed to the existence of the methadone clinic because the area hosts over 1000 patients on a daily basis making it a hotspot for crime and violence.
• Also in the Bombolulu area, mob accosted and killed a male aged between 17 to 20 years of age after he was caught with a stolen motorbike. The security agencies responded and took the body of the deceased to the Coast Referral Mortuary. However, Kisauni and Nyali remains key hotspot areas with at least 2 to 4 motorbikes being stolen from both sub counties every month based on our reports in the last 6 months.

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