WEEKLY CONFLICT EARLY WARNING EARLY RESPONSE BRIEF DATED 26TH MAY TO 1ST JUNE 2022

Executive Summary

The commission has begun the verification of the candidates details and subsequent clearance to allow them to vie. The exercise is peaceful at the local level compared to the national level where conflicts have manifested between the IEBC and some presidential aspirants. So far, gubernatorial, senatorial, women representatives and MP aspirants have been cleared in the coast region and will be vying in the August General Election.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission announced the official commence of the 2022 General elections campaign in Kenya on 29th May and is expected to lapse on 6th June. This is expected to intensify the aggressiveness of the rallies considering the political heat that was being experienced even before the campaign period was declared. The political campaigns in the coast region were characterized with propaganda, inflammatory language and chaos. Youth gangs continue to dominate and interrupt political rallies organized by different aspirants.

As election day approaches, most coastal residents have little to no faith in the IEBC as well as the justice system. This came up during the program activities in various locations where residents declared their lack of faith in the process and electoral institution. Monitored conversations indicate that a big section of the community does not trust that IEBC will be able to deliver free, transparent and fair elections. They are using the previous election as a point of reference to validate their claims. They allege that the IEBC has predetermined electoral outcome.

In Tana Delta, youths feel excluded in the government processes including the electoral process. They are complaining of frustration by the area administrators during the ongoing IEBC vetting process as they try their lack in securing temporary opportunities. They are accusing the state of demanding money and too much bureaucracy in order to assist them (This was addressed with the DCC Garsen for action).

In Kilifi County, chaos was reported in both Azimio la Umoja and Kenya Kwanza coalition rallies in Malindi. The key cause of violence remains to be political intolerance in Kilifi County. This intolerance is partially contributed to by lack delivery by the elected leaders which is believed to have brewed anger among their supporters. This is justified through the public rejection of the women representative and aspirant for Kilifi County Getrude Mbeyu. The ODM supporters had declared to replace her with PAA’s candidate in Kilifi over her poor performance in Malindi constituency. Meanwhile Kenya Kwanza rifts remain unrepaired as UDA and PAA aspirants continue to fight supremacy battles on political podium. It is also worth noting that some of the chaos were partly motivated by voter bribery (women in Shella ward fought over campaign money). Due to this perpetrated violence reported, CSOs, religious institutions and some individuals are lobbying for peaceful campaign as the police have reportedly intensified operation in Shella ward to contain the violent gangs.

In a study conducted by National Cohesion and Integration Centre between January and April, Mombasa county was mapped among the counties with high risk of electoral violence in the forthcoming general election with over 70% probability. Currently, the political temperature has cooled and election campaigns are peaceful. This can be attributed to the commitment by the two major gubernatorial nemesis Mike Sonko and Nassir Abdulswamad to conduct peaceful campaigns. The two were hosted by a church in Nyali in efforts to establish harmony among their supporters. Religious leaders have been engaged on perpetration of political extremism via religious platforms by radical politicians.

KECOSCE’s Early Warning System during the week monitored electoral events both face to face/offline and online. The criminal gangs continue to coexist with political conflicts in the coast region and they continue to be feared to be used as a tool to intimidate politicians and escalate the underlying political difference into conflicts and subsequent perpetrated electoral violence in the region. During this week, our KEWER recorded events on political issues, juvenile gang activities and resource based or climate change issues from the coast.

A total of 26 events were reported during this one week (3.7% decrease). The reports were disaggregated into the following categories

• 13 political violence
• 8 criminal gang attacks
• 1 case of GBV
• 4 events on climate change impacts.

Out of the total number of events, Political violence accounted for 50%, Criminal gangs/militia group activities 31%, Gender Based Violence accounted for 4%, while climate change impacts accounted for 15%.

A FOCUS ON COUNTY VOLATILITY AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK PREDICTION

During this week, the electoral key issues were the vast use and spread of propaganda especially on historical land injustices, high economic burden, disruption of political rallies, political competitions, disruption of campaigns and criminal gang operation. These events continue to suggest a high risk of electoral violence within the coast.

RESPONSE TO ELECTORAL VIOLENCE OVER THE WEEK

KECOSCE over this period supported community initiatives that respond to high risk electoral indicators of violence through it programs. During this week, KECOSCE engaged the boda boda officials and operators on electoral conflicts mitigation and response to violence in Chonyi sub county. The meeting objected to mobilize the boda boda of Chonyi sub county against the prevailing high stakes of their recruitment and utilization in the increased incidences of political rally disruptions in the large Kilifi County. The boda boda operators were also urged to desist from indulging in voter bribery, confrontations, and spread of hate speech and inflammatory remarks via social media.

Also, community influencers who are key players in the local political arena were engaged and sensitized in Chonyi Sub county at Bandarasalama location. The CSIC were invited to sensitize them on electoral sensitivity and conflict mitigation and prevention during campaigns and mobilization at the grassroots level.

Political violence risk generally increased by 62.5% in the coast. During this week, we received a total of 13 electoral conflict incidences across the six counties of the Coast region. Out of the six counties, Kilifi took the lead with a high risk of electoral conflict accounting for 54%. Tana River follows with 23% while Mombasa accounted for 15%. Taita Taveta accounted for 8% while Kwale did not report any incidence of electoral conflict risk.

The 3 conflict monitors deployed are monitoring the electoral issues online to enhance the early warning briefs and response to emerging conflicts in the coast. So far the major issues reported include political polarization based on tribe and party in Tana Delta, Kilfi and Mombasa.

COUNTY VOLATILITY THIS WEEK

1. Kilifi county was the most volatile this week. Apart from recording the most incidents in the coast, the events reported have the high electoral threat to cause violence in the coast. These include perpetrated electoral violence characterized by chaos and bribery.
2. Chaos erupted in Azimio la Umoja and Kenya Kwanza rallies where meetings were disrupted in Malindi on two occasions. Kenya Kwanza rally held at Msabaha field was chaotic after PAA and UDA supporters confronted each other and Aisha Jumwa referred to the both of them as dogs. A day later at Cleopatra grounds, Azimio la Umoja’s rally was ended prematurely after goons stormed the rally and tried to attack the aspirants. Scores of people were injured.
3. Propaganda was rampant in Malindi during Kenya Kwanza and Azimio la Umoja rallies and it is believed to have been one of the causes of chaos and disruption reported. Azimio brigade led by Gideon Saburi and Joho attacked Kilifi County Governor Amason Kingi for joining Kenya Kwanza and deconstructed the Kenya Kwanza team.
4. During this week, generally the risk of political violence decreased in the coast. The political extremism was highest in Malindi sub county where youth gangs were associated and blamed for the political unrest reported. We predict an increase in electoral violence based on both online and offline factors in play. These include the enormous political disagreements being reported.
5. 3 cases of voter bribery were reported in Tana River (Vumbwe, Malakoteni and Caritas) and 1 in Malindi. During the events, chaos erupted in Malakoteni after an aspirant failed to fulfill his promise of issuing cash to the youths who allege to have been hired to cheer his rally up and demonstrate massive support. Malindi, women confronted each other in Shella ward over campaign money.
6. Door to door campaigns were reported in Nyali sub county. The independent candidates were reported to be mobilizing the residents to support them. They were also alleged to be collecting signatures to present to the IEBC as directed.
7. Lamu remained peaceful throughout the week.

ATTACKS BY MILITIA GROUPS ON CIVILIANS

The crime rate decreased by 62.5% in this week. A total of 8 events (compared to 11 for last week) of criminal gangs were reported. Mombasa county was the most volatile accounting for 62.5%. It was followed by Kilifi with 25% of the total criminal incidents. while Kwale accounted for 12.5%. Tana River did not report any criminal event during this period apart from goons that disrupted political gatherings. Taita Taveta and Lamu were peaceful.

Operation of criminal gangs in the coast region continue to raise concern for the security actors especially in Mombasa, Kilifi and Kwale. During this week they were majorly manifested through among others, disruption of political gatherings, murder and theft where scores of people were injured in the aftermath especially.

1. A man was murdered and his body abandoned in his car in Tudor Mombasa. The police attached to Makupa are investigating the incident where preliminary reports indicate the man was strangled and his killers intended to kill.
2. The rate of crime reported per week increased in the coast region. In Mombasa, at least 6 criminal reports were captured by the early warning system in less than a week. Incidents were reported in Mvita (Tudor-1), Nyali(Mtopanga-1, Mla Leo-1), Kisauni(Magodoroni-1, FrereTown-1) and Likoni (timbwani-1). While in Kwale police are conducting an operation to without the surge in the illicit brew operations in Matuga as security agencies fear the breweries are becoming popular for organized crime and subsequent perpetrated electoral violence.
3. Influx of beggars along the streets of Mombasa raised a concern in Magodoroni area. A female syndicate is on the police radar. She was accused of running an organized gang of PWDs in a flat ‘that is transported and strategically placed in various locations in Mombasa to collect cash from the unsuspecting community members.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISRUPTED LIVELIHOODS

The impacts of drought continue to disrupt livelihoods in Tana Delta. Rain is insufficient while seedling and the cost of farming is high.

1. Residents in Garsen have turned to Inuka Fund Loan initiative introduced by the county government to cushion residents from the adverse impacts of climate change. A conflict is brewing over the qualification for eligibility. The residents, both farmers and pastoralists, are reportedly rushing to fulfill the requirement to qualify for the loan.
2. The residents adjacent to Nidhamia Hall are conflict with the KIMAWASCO officials over digging of water pipe tunnel. The tunnels went through their business stalls hence disrupting their business operations. KIMAWASCO officials did not issue any notice for eviction.
3. Meanwhile area chiefs are rushing to resolve the underlying emotive land conflicts feared to contribute to the ongoing electoral conflicts. These are manifesting through pastoral-farmer conflicts being reported in Kipini where crop invasion by livestock remain a security concern in the area. The threat is predicted to remain high because pastoralists are allegedly restocking.
4. In Kwale county, the communities of Mkuduru village in Dzombo location have turned to masking their animals to prevent them from feeding on the crops on their way to the pasture fields. This is expected to help reduce the number of community conflicts being experienced.

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