WEEKLY CONFLICT EARLY WARNING EARLY RESPONSE BRIEF DATED 11TH TO 18TH MAY, 2022
Executive Summary
The coast region was generally politically busy. All presidential and gubernatorial candidates were put on toes by the IEBC to present their running mates before the stipulated time expired. The Azimio la Umoja campaign trail made a tour to the coast region to drum up support. The Seven-member panel after successful interviewing the Azimio presidential running mate hopefuls, Martha Karua was selected to run besides Raila Odinga in the August presidential race. However, conflicts continue to marry the political space as Kalonzo Musyoka defected from Azimio One Kenya Alliance and declared to run for presidency.
The political campaigns in the coast region were marred with violence. Chaos were reported in Mombasa, Kilifi and Tana River counties during the Azimio La Umoja visits. Most of these chaos was blamed on rivalry within and across the two major coalitions; Azimio La Umoja and Kenya Kwanza.
The emotive land issues have a high risk of sending the coast region of Kenya into post-election conflicts. This is being manifested through the promises the political aspirants are making in order to lure the citizen in voting for them come August 2022. Raila Odinga has promised to install Governor Joho in the ministry of land with a principal task of resolving the historical land injustices after being governor for 10 years in Mombasa.
In Kilifi County, the ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga was in Malindi, Kilifi North and Chonyi Sub counties. His campaigns were filled with propaganda directed at his political ally turned nemesis Amason Kingi. He called him a traitor recounting how he elevated him from Magarini Member of Parliament to being Kilifi governor for 10 years. The venues for rallies were strategic to the community problems.
In Mombasa, the gubernatorial race is still hot. Mike Sonko will not bow despite being shown intolerance at Tononoka ground in Mombasa. This is after he made his way into Azimio la Umoja rally at Mkomani grounds where he was attacked by supporters believed to be allied to Abdulswamad. Considering factors that increase the prevalence for criminal gangs in Mombasa, Sonko’s bid to beat Abdulswamad is going to escalate the emergence and action of criminal gangs ready to be mobilized for perpetrated violence and intimidation.
Meanwhile, in Kwale, land conflicts coupled with the impacts of climate change continued to manifest. Residents have been in conflict with the land institutions for contributing to their land miseries. Corruption has been blamed for most of the unresolved land conflicts. Transparency International has launched a four-year programme to address cases of historical land injustices in Kwale county. It aims at curbing corruption inhibiting land conflicts resolution through the legal process.
KECOSCE’s Early Warning System during the week monitored electoral events both face to face/offline and online. The criminal gangs tend to coexist with political conflicts in the coast region and they continue to be feared to be used as a tool to intimidate politicians and escalate the underlying political difference into conflicts and subsequent perpetrated electoral violence in the region. During this week, our KEWER recorded events on political issues, juvenile gang activities and resource based or climate change issues from the coast.
A total of 24 events were reported during this one week. The reports were disaggregated into the following categories
- 14 political violence
- 5 criminal gang attacks,
- 4 events on climate change impacts,
- 1 incident of terror event
Out of the total number of events, Political violence accounted for 58%, Criminal gangs/militia group activities 21%, Climate change impacts accounted for 17% while terror related events accounted for 4%.
A FOCUS ON COUNTY VOLATILITY AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK PREDICTION
During this week, the emerging issues included attacks on aspirants, disruption of political rallies, emotive land conflicts, the running mate choice scuffle, indoor campaigns and criminal gang operation. With less than 3 months to the August polls, these issues continue to have high likelihood of directly or indirectly contributing to electoral conflicts in the coast region if timely action is not taken.
KECOSCE supported peace committees and CSIC to sensitize the community members on election conflict mitigation in Malindi, Kilifi North, Chonyi and Kilifi South sub counties. The meetings provided avenue for community members to dialogue on emerging electoral issues and way forward, calling for agreement and commitment to observe the rule of law in exercising their democratic rights. TOTs attached to KECOSCE are also conducting civic and voter education through theatre acting and online campaigns that aims at enhancing the youths and women participation in the voting exercise.
During this week, we received a total of 14 political violence incidences across the six counties of the Coast region. Out of the six counties, Tana River has a high risk of electoral conflict accounting for 50%. Kilifi follows with 36% while Mombasa reported 14% of the electoral violence recorded. Taita Taveta, Kwale and Lamu did not report political violence over this period.
KECOSCE is running both on-the-ground (using SMS blast) and online campaigns to enhance ethnic cohesion and political tolerance among the coastarians.
The political violence experienced in Mombasa, Tana River and the coast region in general is directly related to the upsurge in the operation of criminal gangs.
Political intolerance continues to be manifested in the coast region. This is mainly being manifested through campaign chaos and disruptions. These were reported in Tana River and Mombasa during Azimio rallies. Supremacy battles between aspirants were faulted for triggering the emergency and upsurge of orchestrated gang operations. In Mombasa, Sonko is seen to be frustrated and targeted. This is seen through his reference as an outsider by his competitors. This means it may be difficult for the existing tyranny to allow him in power whether he wins or not.
COUNTY VOLATILITY THIS WEEK
- Tana River county was the most volatile this week. Apart from recording the most incidents in the coast, the events reported have the high potential to trigger electoral related violence in the coast.
- Kaya Elders endorsed Sonko to be governor for Mombasa and called upon the government to increase his security following his attack at the Mkomani Grounds on Saturday.
- 2 cases of IEC material related electoral conflicts were reported in Malindi and Garsen (Tana Delta). In Tana Delta, a youth was caught wearing a UDA T-shirt in the Azinio la Umoja rally and the public sought to beat him up. The police intervened and rescued the man. A similar incident was reported in Malindi
where an old man who claimed to be illiterate walked into an ODM meeting in Sabasaba area during an event to celebrate the appointment of Martha Karua as the presidential running mate. In both incidents, the perpetrators of conflicts were suspected to have orchestrated the events. - Lamu, Kwale and Taita Taveta continue to enjoy some degree of peace existence throughout the week with minimum number of incidents.
- After being on the watch list, as predicted Mombasa County experienced electoral conflicts which escalated to violence during this reporting period. on the watch list in the coming week. The conflicts emanated from Sonko’s presence in the Azimio La Umoja rally. This violent encounter between him and his political nemesis is expected to continue being experienced because his gubernatorial bid is yet to be accepted by his competitors who are likely to organize pressure groups to intimidate his ambition and protect their interest.
- Hate speech and inflammatory language against aspirants was reported on social media and in political rallies. Land thief (5times) and lord of poverty were the most widely used terms the Deputy president William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga respectively.
- On social media, facebook and whatsapp were widely used to share posts with inflammatory language. Most actors were perceived to be youths and women.
- The emotive land conflicts continue to pose a threat to the socio-political aspects of life of the Kwale residents. Unresolved land tussles continued to manifest. One (1) incident of land conflict between business people and the government due to lack of proper eviction approach and compensation plan ensued at Diani in Msambweni Sub County.
ATTACKS BY MILITIA GROUPS ON CIVILIANS
The crime rate decreased by 38% this week compared to last week. A total of 5 events (compared to 8 for last week) of criminal gangs were reported. Mombasa and Kilifi counties were the most affected with 40%, followed by Tana River with 20%, while Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta remained fairly peaceful.
Operation of criminal gangs in the coast region is attributed to rivalry among political kingpins in the region. Most of these groups are organizing to push the interests of their ‘masters’ through orchestrated political chaos. This has been manifested through rallies in Garsen and Mkomani in Tana River and Mombasa respectively.
- Orchestrated gang action suspected to be stage managed was reported. A video made rounds on social media whereby 4 gang members of ‘Chaka to Chaka’, one of the juvenile gang reigning terror in Likoni and other parts of Mombasa county are seen confessing to committing atrocities including murder. They blaming lack of employment and poor leadership in the county as he main cause of their action.
- In response to the upsurge in perpetrated criminal gangs in Mombasa and the coast region, special police unit from Nairobi will be deployed in the region to stamp out criminal gangs being used to instill fear among citizens as the nation gears towards election.
TERROR RELATED EVENTS
Terror activities perpetrated by Al-Shabaab militants continue to be a concern for the security agencies in the coast region. The month of April recorded an increase in militia actions which primarily targeted military convoys and patrol units, government officials and common citizens. Al-Shabaab took responsibility for more than 60 attacks including raids, assassinations, attempts, armed ambushes and IED attacks in Kenya and Somalia. Following the attacks in April, remote violence continues to manifest in Lamu as basic amenities such as health centers and schools remain closed. Some government projects such as the LAPSSET were also stalled.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISRUPTED LIVELIHOODS
Communities in Tana Delta continue to suffer due to the climate change impacts. The residents are lamenting about prolonged drought and a short season of rainfall which has stalled the farmers’ plan to cultivate food crops to assist in the alleviation of hunger. These impacts are also escalating the economic burden as business people count losses over decreased consumption of agricultural products as well as food products. Concerns have been raised for the government and other well-wishers to provide humanitarian assistance and deescalate the hunger-related conflicts which are thought to contribute to criminal events in Delta as youths indulge in robbery to put food on the table in Garsen. While in Kwale, residents of Diani in Msambweni are in conflict with the government over the demolition of their businesses to pave way for the installation of water pipes in a move to respond to climate change impacts.