KEY SCENARIOS

1. Youth resolve to protest and don’t go to state house –
   1. Police will still kill the demonstrators
   2. Government will instruct county security teams to arrest protesters and arraign them in court
   3. More abductions will be reported
   4. Dialogue starts with state friendly youth leaders
   5. GenZ refuses to dialogue with government

WHAT IS TO BE DONE

1. Remobilization for dialogues nationally and at local level
2. President sacks his cabinet to save face
3. Politicians tone down their rhetoric and apologize
4. Peace building stakeholders mobilise resources for peace building targeting youth

2. Policy and legislative spaces
   1. Court ruling to stop government from deploying KDF to interfere with internal conflicts
   2. Parliament is convened – but MPs don’t attend what is the quorum
   3. Parliament is convened they follow president’s referral and directive and reject the bill – government will find other means to increase costs e.g. fuel costs that will continue to trigger costs of living.
   4. KDF rejects government call for deployment and advice police continue to deal with the situation

WHAT MAY HAPPEN

1. Judiciary rules against deployment of KDF but ruling is ignored – more violence
2. MPs get targeted and their private businesses attacked
3. Violence to continue
4. Peace messaging to continue
5. Religious leaders and diplomatic missions push for restraint and for talks.

3. Demonstrators resolve to ‘occupy state house’

1. 1. Police kill demonstrators
   2. Government strategic buildings are destroyed all over the country
   3. Private businesses vandalized
   4. Criminals attack citizens to take advantage of lawlessness

4. Youth led protests stop for dialogue

1. 1. Immediate ceasefire
   2. Dialogues organized
   3. President takes action on corruption in his cabinet
   4. President sacks entire cabinet

5. President concedes and resigns

1. 1. Crisis on immediate take over
   2. More deaths of civilians
   3. International interventions.
   4. Peace missions deployed
   5. The IEBC is still dysfunctional causing a further crisis.

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