1.0. Introduction.

The KECOSCE (www.kecosce.org)  Early Warning platform offers an array of interactive and interconnected tools for tracking community safety and crime prevention efforts in the Coast of Kenya. As from January 2024, KECOSCE has updated our EWER indicators to the current and emerging peace and security environment in the Coast region.  We received financial support from TetraTech under the REINVENT program to improve on the system and deepen conflict and security analysis with a view to providing both the state and non state actors with analytical reports that can support proactive responses through improved stakeholder engagement in crime prevention and peacebuilding in Kisauni and Nyali sub-counties of Mombasa County and beyond.

We have updated the system indicators to concentrate on

1. Tracking emerging conflicts and linking response actors to the issue for resolution/intervention.
2. Recording violent acts between and across non-state groups, including political and identity militias;
3. Monitoring constitutional rights and compliance by state agencies
4. Monitoring state responses and protection of human rights and vice versa
5. Collecting information on rioting and protesting; and
6. Tracking non-violent strategic developments representing crucial junctures (e.g. recruitment drives, peace talks, high-level arrests)
7. Analyzing and dissemination of conflict briefs to right holders and duty bearers for accountability

During the last week covering 17^th to 26^th January, 2024, we received from our sources a total of 17 events reports.  This is a decrease of 12.5% from the previous week which indicates a movement towards stability for the month.  The reports were categorized as follows:

1. Non-lethal violence: 2 Events.
2. Lethal violence: 2 Events
3. Legal Action and arrests; 3 Event.
4. Threats :2 Events
5. Polarization; 5 Events
6. Sexual and Gender based violence 3 events

2.0 SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS PER COUNTY.

 

1.    MOMBASA

For Mombasa the data we had was from Kisauni, Changamwe and Nyali sub counties. It was recorded as follows;

Lethal/Non-lethal violence

1. Two people (a boda boda operator and his client) were attacked and injured by two armed youths in Mwembelegeza location of Kisauni Sub-county. A phone and cash amounting to Kshs. 10,000 was stolen. The incident was reported to Bamburi police station.
2. Four youths were killed by a mob in Kisauni and Nyali Sub counties. They were suspected of being members of various juvenile gangs. The three were killed in Shanzu ward while another was lynched in Kadzandani ward. Also one other survived mob injustice after being rescued by community policing in Shanzu.
3. In Changamwe, over 84 families residing in the National Housing Corporation (NHC) estate were demolished by the government. The demolition is intended at securing the land allocated for the Government’s affordable housing initiative in Changamwe sub counties.

Arrests.

1. Four incidents of arrests were recorded. Two involved the local peace structures (community policing) one was conducted by police while the other one by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC). We recorded community policing arrests in Shanzu and Junda wards in Kisauni sub county.
2. The police arrested a suspect of perpetrated violence in Mtwapa and detained him in Mjambere police station. He was linked to a crime (being followed by our EWER) .
3. Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission arrested nine (9) officials of the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) in Mombasa over corruption allegations.

Legal Action.

1. One youth was arraigned in Shanzu Law courts. The youth is a suspect in an attack perpetrated against a civilian in V.O.K. He has been on police radar since December 2023.
2. At least three suspects of Sexual and Gender based violence have been arraigned in Shanzu court on accounts of defilement of minors. The victims are young boys and girls in primary school mainly from Mtopanga location of Kisauni.

 

Polarization/Dangerous speech; KECOSCES EWER System monitored the online spaces for potential triggers of violence. We identified at least 52 online posts over the past 7 days regarding the recent killings of criminals by members of public.  A major focus was on the role of police, community policing (Sungu sungu) and crime  prevention units in Kisauni where the attack took place..

 

Generally, our analysis reflects a complex and multifaceted discussion surrounding community policing, crime, the justice system, parental responsibility, and the potential for violence escalation in Kisauni. These sentiments underscore the need for comprehensive and collaborative efforts to address crime and maintain public safety while upholding the rule of law and protecting community members from harm.

The countrywide mobilization of women to hold protests in Mombasa, Kilifi and Kwale on increasing cases of Femicide has ignited debates online.  Women are calling on state actors to protect their safety while empowering men on positive masculinity.

 

EARLY WARNINGS:

1. There is persistent tension in Shanzu location. The media coverage linking the area chief to perpetrated violence has raised serious security concerns on the role of administrators in administering justice and protection of human rights. Currently, local administrators including the village managers are fearing for their life due to anticipated targeting by juvenile gangs.
2. there are rumors that gangs whose comrades were lynched last week may seek revenge on civilians.
3. As the public awaits the Court of Appeal Ruling on affordable housing schemes, fears of massive demolitions being reported in Mombasa county are likely to spark protests and unrests..

1.    KWALE COUNTY

For Kwale county, we captured data on legal response to a land dispute in Golini.

Legal Action; The Environment and Land court issued a court order to communities occupying Gaza village in Kwale. The order directed the occupants to vacate the land in 6 months or risk forceful eviction. The court advised the squatters to negotiate with the legal land owners to avoid evictions.

Protests; Protests were reported in Matuga sub county. Residents of Tiwi protested the increasing cases of land grabbing by private investors. They called on President William Ruto to remain vigilant in in fighting corruption that is responsible for illegal land acquisition.

 

2.    KILIFI COUNTY.

Lethal/Non-lethal violence: An elderly man was murdered in Jilore by unkown assailants at his home.  Police arrests some suspects for questioning.  The continued killings of elderly in the country is causing panic as communities helplessly continue to loose loved ones in the hands of criminals.

 

Threats to security.

In Kwandomo area in Malindi, residents are alarmed by the escalating security caused by criminals who have turned the village into a save haven for refuge.  In a dialogue held on January 18, 2024, residents urged the authorities to intervene by shutting down criminal hideouts and expelling suspected perpetrators of violence from the area. Criminal gangs have also been reported in Shella Ward

 

EARLY WARNING:

• Increasing activities of illegal and juvenile young gangs is on the rise in Malindi town, Jilore, Ganda, Sabaki and Juju wards of Kilifi County.
• There will be peaceful demonstration organized by civil society and women rights to protest rising cases of killings of women by people they trust or have intimate relations. This is a national call on the government to take action to protect women and girls especially young women in learning institutions.

3.    TAITA TAVETA COUNTY.

Threats to security; Residents of Sofia estate in Voi, Taita Taveta, are facing potential eviction due to the expansion of a road, marked by beacons allegedly placed by NTSA. Sensitization meetings were conducted between NTSA and local residents to discuss the need to vacate the area and reach a consensus.

EARLY WARNING: The situation has created tension and confusion among the residents. Authorities should closely monitor the community’s reactions and address concerns such as protests promptly to prevent potential unrest.

4. TANA RIVER COUNTY

ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS: Tana River’s Delta subcounty has continued to host communities who were displaced by floods since December, 2023.  The families have pitched tents along the roads without sanitation and health facilities.  Children have been relocated to makeshift schools with a few teachers providing educational services to them.

 

Outbrak Fall Armyworm (FAW) Tana river farmers have reported an outbreak of the FAW especially at the irrigation schemes and communal minor farms. The FAW invasive pest pose a grave challenge to the economic, environmental and food security by causing crop damage, financial losses and subsequently increased the over reliance on relief food and nonfood supplies.

EARLY WARNING:

1. We have noticed an increase in the movement of animals from Garissa to the Delta in search of pasture. Although the resource management committees have been tasked with the responsibility of supporting government agencies to control access to pasture by people coming into the country, sub counties of Tana Delta and Galedyertu are likely to begin experiencing conflicts amongst the famers and herder communities.
2. Youths who have become eligible for acquisition of National Identification Cards in the entire county have waited for a long time without the government issuing them with the cards. Thousands of applicants are unable to access government services especially those from Galedyertu subcounty due to the distance they must cover to access the offices of registrars.  This situation is exposing the youth to major vulnerabilities as they cannot access some government services and even register for Person Identification Numbers (PIN) to run small scale businesses.

 

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