Key Highlights

1. Operation of criminal gangs’ raises concern among the community members in the region.
2. Saba Saba Commemoration Rekindles Political Tensions and Public Unrest.
3. Increase in Resource Conflicts across Coastal Kenya paints a picture of Climate Problems and Gaps in Governance.
4. Political discourse escalated in Kilifi After Speaker’s Dramatic Ouster Over Misconduct Allegations.
5. 79% of the conflicts are still active and require concerted efforts by all stakeholders to prevent escalation in the coming week.

Introduction

The KECOSCE (www.kecosce.org) is an interactive and interconnected system designed to track community safety and crime prevention efforts across the Coastal region of Kenya. The platform operates through a network of community volunteers known as peace monitors, who continuously scan their surroundings for potential conflict indicators.

The system also triangulates information received by monitoring the social media platforms. The reports are first verified before transmitted to the target actors for immediate action or response to prevent any escalation to violence.

1. Executive Summary

This reporting period recorded a total of 14 conflict-related incidences, classified under four main types. In this week, resource-related and boundary disputes have sharply risen, from 3 to 5 cases reported, thereby recording an increase of 40 percent. Most of the incidents arose due to competition over grazing land, fishing grounds, and climate-resettlement areas, especially in Tana River County and Kilifi County.

Key flashpoints were grazing disputes in Sailoni and Idsoe, as well as opposition to relocation programs by communities in Mwangaza Village. These dispute causes range from prolonged drought, overlapping land claims, and weak governance institutions, all of which have contributed to increasing intercommunity tensions and a potential flare-up of localized violence.

Threat-related incidents constituted four events this week, down from 6 reported last week, a 33.3% decrease. Although this drop comes as a much-welcomed reprieve, it is still the symptom of the underlying cause; criminal gangs still operating in Garsen, political interference over Kilifi, and community unrest over stalled compensation and human-wildlife conflict. All these incidents continue to bear testimony to increasing insecurity and diminishing public trust in enforcement and governance.

Increased lethal and non-lethal violence were recorded this week, rising from 2 to 3 incidents — a 33.3% increase. The additional cases (death) occurred amidst an inter-communal clash in Mnarani, Kilifi County, between local and Pemba fishermen over marine resource access. This incident is reflective of the rising tension among coastal fishing zones and adds urgency for intervention before a further escalation in violence.

Two protest events were recorded this week, reflecting the same trend as that of the last reporting period. In Miritini, stranded passengers protested against the suspension of the Madaraka Express train service, suspecting political interference in connection with the Saba Saba commemorations; in Malindi, nurses at the county referral hospital withdrew services due to poor working conditions and delayed allowances, paralyzing health services. Both protests portray escalating public frustration, which could unravel into wider civil unrest unless timely intervention is put in place to address the causes: governance gaps, service delivery failures, and poor communication.

2. Incident Overview

This week’s conflict dynamic reveal a shift in the nature rather than the volume of unrest, marked by increased fatalities and resource-based disputes, a drop in SGBV and threat incidents, and ongoing protests reflecting persistent tensions, governance gaps, and rising public frustration in Kenya’s coastal region.

3. Conflict Actors & Dynamics

A) Operation of criminal gangs’ raises concern among the community members in the region.

Reports from the Jua Kali area of Garsen indicate the persistent operations of a gang known locally as the “7 Brothers.” The group is reportedly engaging in home burglaries and livestock theft, and employing drug-laced injections to disorient victims before committing crimes. This demonstrates a shift towards organized, premeditated criminality, and presents a growing threat, especially to women and the elderly who are often left alone during the day. In the Madogo area, the persistent operation of the “Kayole Gang”, accused of targeting elderly individuals in land-related attacks, marks a serious escalation. The recent sexual assault and murder of an elderly woman has instilled fear in communities and could trigger retaliatory violence or vigilante responses if left unchecked. This gang appears to be exploiting land tenure disputes to justify violence, making it not only a criminal but also a conflict-sensitive issue.

B) Saba Saba Commemoration Rekindles Political Tensions and Public Unrest.

The 35th anniversary of Saba Saba, that ushered Kenya into the multiparty democracy, was marked with escalated political tensions, widespread public unrest, and civil demonstrations that went escalated into violence in several parts of the country. At least 31 people have been reported dead by the Kenya Human Rights Commission with Nairobi and Kiambu among the most affected. No deaths or injuries were reported from the Coast region, though, activities on that day uncovered potential flashpoints that required close security monitoring and strategic preparedness including heavy police deployment and call for cohesion by both state and non-state actors. The media saw high octane public uproar concerning cases of violent police-public confrontations that led to the death and injure of both members of the public and police in areas including Nairobi and Kiambu.

In Mombasa and Kilifi counties, heavy deployment of security personnel was observed in Central Business Districts (CBDs). This deployment was proactive and justifiable, especially in response to growing concerns by the business community over the potential for looting and vandalism—a trend witnessed in prior protests within these towns. A key area of concern was Miritini SGR Terminal, where the abrupt suspension of Madaraka Express services on July 6 led to significant commuter disruptions. The lack of early communication led to public frustration and confusion, with many interpreting the action as a government attempt to limit mass mobilization toward Nairobi ahead of the planned July 7th demonstrations. Similarly, reports of youths from Diani being blocked at the Dongo Kundu Bypass intensified perceptions of infringement on constitutional rights, potentially feeding into anti-state sentiment.

These developments underscore the importance of timely public communication, especially when implementing high-stakes transport or movement restrictions. They also highlight the need for crowd management protocols that prioritize de-escalation and civilian engagement to avoid unintended provocation. Infiltration of peaceful protests by hostile actors reflects an emerging trend of protest hybridization, where legitimate civic activity is exploited by non-state disruptors. This necessitates enhanced intelligence gathering, rapid threat assessment capabilities, and inter-agency coordination to differentiate between peaceful demonstrators and bad-faith actors.

C) Increase in Resource Conflicts across Coastal Kenya paints a picture of Climate Problems and Gaps in Governance.

Tensions are escalating in Tana River County where clashes between farmers and herders and camel vs. cattle disputes highlight the effects of climate-induced scarcity and governance gaps. During the current harvesting period, escalating tensions have been reported between farming and pastoral communities in Sailoni. Herders have been grazing livestock—particularly cattle and goats—on farmlands, leading to destruction of crops and loss of yield. This practice has resulted in verbal and physical confrontations, with communities expressing fear of escalation into violence. Farmers are accusing herders of intentional provocation, while herders claim lack of alternative pasture. The situation is being worsened by the absence of clear boundaries and grazing management mechanisms.

Similar issues have been raised in Idsoe River area between camel herders and non-camel livestock farmers (primarily those rearing cattle and sheep). Non-camel farmers have raised concerns that camels are exhausting pastureland by consuming not just grass but also plant stems, leading to accelerated depletion of available grazing resources. This has heightened inter-community strain, with accusations of unfair grazing practices and fears of eventual displacement of smaller herders. The situation is becoming more volatile as drought conditions persist.

Meanwhile in Kilifi County, conflict over fishing zones in Mnarani led to a fatality, signaling inter-community strain.  A local fisherman was killed by the Pemba community of fishers. The conflict is said to have emanated over fish resources, which escalated to violence, leading to the death of one person. Though the Deputy County Commissioner confirmed to the local communities in Mnarani that a suspect involved in th murder is in police custody and investigations are ongoing, the local fisher folks are not assured of justice and an end to the such incidents since these disputes stem from access to resource based access. The Pemba communities which basically comprises of skilled fishers using more sophisticated fishing tools capable of accessing deep sea are viewed as a threat to the local fishing industry leading to the feeling of competition.

D) Political discourse escalated in Kilifi After Speaker’s Dramatic Ouster Over Misconduct Allegations

Political discourse escalated in Kilifi county assembly when the Members of the county Assembly voted to oust the speaker of the assembly over misconduct and interference in committee work.  It exposes a realignment in Teddy Mwambire’s impeachment within the political elite, with respect to Kilifi. It indicates that there are deeper tensions regarding loyalty to the party, executive influence, and autonomy of the legislature. This is not just about procedural shortcomings; it is about power acquisition on budget and supervision approaching future political cycles. In the future, the choice of the new speaker and the manner in which grievances at the ward level are addressed are considered pivotal in defining the effectiveness of this assembly and its public legitimacy.

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