CONFLICT OVERVIEW FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2025

During the month of June 2025, Kenya Community Support Centre (KECOSCE) continued monitoring, analyzing, and disseminating information related to conflict climate change and security through the Early Warning Early Response (EWER) hub-in-all coastal counties. It witnessed a variety of incidences during the month, including protests of a political nature, SGBV, policing misconduct, climate-induced risks, and criminal activity, all revealing the entrenched vulnerabilities of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, and Lamu counties.

In Mombasa County, political related tensions and social strains were significantly high. Youth and civil society actors organized protests to show their grievances regarding the economy and state policies, which attracted massive police deployment. In what appeared to be a strategic move to enhance police restrain during the protests, most officers carried batons and equipped themselves with protective gear. However, some parts of the CBD Abduction and enforced disappearance incidents featured reports but drew an outcry from the public. Defilement, narcoticrelated arrests, and armed robbery cases continued especially in areas like Kisauni and Makaburini. Many threats were neutralized as a result. Meanwhile, concerns about police misconduct resurfaced with the easy detention of many peaceful demonstrators without prior indication.

Kilifi County continued to experience both socio-economic interventions and criminal activities. The recruitment of youth by government departments had traced hope amid unemployment. Armed robbery and organized gang activities were still lying low until the Gen-z anniversary protests that saw heightened criminal acts as goons descended on shops and businesses.

In Rabai DCI operations arrested several individuals involved in highway robberies. Everincreasing community cries had also continued for the resolution of land ownership disputes, and changing climatic conditions had triggered early warnings.

Kwale County recorded socio-political upheavals and local resistance to some government actions. Some peaceful protests, sometimes escalated by excessive force, attracted the attention of nonstate actors. Domestic violence cases and unresolved land disputes were among the complaints raised. Also, frustrations fueled by economic hardship led to a collaborative initiative between agencies in terms of proactive action.

The dual flood threat, chiefly of climatic and social origin, was to face Tana River County. Vigilance was already by the Kenya Meteorological Department on the change in wind patterns, water levels, and rainfall variation. Community-level reports showed fears of flooding and destruction of crops due to flooding. Increasing socio-economic tension and local grievances were reported in some riverine areas.

Lamu County recorded cases of heightened physical aggression, including violent captivity leading to hospitalization. Police operations in Amu and its adjacent districts aimed to combat what they suspected to be organized crime. Other environmental changes and marine advisories by Kenya Met Department also cautioned of increased winds in coastal waters.

Alerts from weather were all high knocking in the region. The Kenya Met Department repeatedly warned changing wind patterns for a rise in water levels that may affect both marine and agricultural communities. While many incidents of conflict within communities have been resolved through collaboration between local peace actors, religious leaders, and corresponding state agencies, others still required escalation to higher-level security and administrative structures.

Data showing comparative figures between the months of May and June, 2025.

A total of 37 incidents were recorded in June, marking a 27.59% increase from the 29 incidents reported in May. Mombasa remained the hotspot, with an increase in socio-political tension, organized crime, and protests. Taita Taveta saw a marginal rise from zero activity, while Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu recorded moderate increases. Tana River saw a slight decline but continued to reflect climatic risks.

A bar graph representation of the general trend May Vs June, 2025.

In June 2025, conflict dynamics across Kenya’s coastal region changed, with several counties experiencing changes in the number and nature of incidents reported.

VOLATILITY RISK BY COUNTY

Mombasa County

Mombasa County was the steepest rising, with incidents reported rising from 13 in the month of May to 18 in June, representing a 38.5% rise. The rise was
largely motivated by new and deepening tensions of a sociopolitical nature, followed by protests from youth on behalf of the desperate police, discontent
about economic policies, and perceived totalitarianism of the state in policing. There were armed gangs in neighborhoods such as Kisauni that affected reports, whereas police response against Kisauni gangsters was perceived as disorganized, rivalistic, and personal, hence adding to the high numbers of the reports. Law enforcement intervention notwithstanding, the situation continues to reflect the discontent of youth, serious erosion of trust in government institutions, and the impending threat of civil unrest. In Kilifi County, incidents rose by the 50% margin from 4 in May to 6 in June. Although these
numbers are small, the type of incidents that occurred, particularly armed robberies, drug-related arrests, and violent confrontations, suggests a continuation of organized crime activity. Community peace initiatives and ongoing state patronage programs for recruitment of youth stand in direct contradiction to the resilience of criminal gangs; hence more sector-targeted intervention that is multi-faceted may be required.

In Kwale County, there was a marginal increase of incidents by 33.33% rise, with the causes being domestic violence, land ownership, and disputes, and civic activism on the rise. Peaceful protests—sometimes violent—against state-sponsored projects and about perceived political marginalization have continued, with key mediation and advocacy roles being played by non-state actors.

In Lamu County, incidents increased slightly from 2 to 3 incidences: a 50% increase. Most of the issues reported were physical assault, unresolved policing concerns, and environmental alerts including marine weather warning from the Kenya Meteorological Department. Such incidents necessitate being on the watch despite the infrequency due to Lamu’s history with violent extremism and fragile peace condition.

Finally, Tana River County recorded a slight decline from 6 to 5 incidents, approximately a 16.7% drop. Nevertheless, the county is highly vulnerable to climate-related conflict triggers, with rising water levels and erratic rainfall unhinging agriculture and livestock—two key sources of livelihood. These disruptions continue to strain relations inter-community relations already frail and flaring up orbiting consideration.

One incident was reported in Taita Taveta County in June; it was minimal, nevertheless with a 100% increase, reiterating the necessity of continuous monitoring even in counties with low historical volatility. The said incident calls for peacebuilding intervention on an immediate basis lest the region’s relative stability is undermined.

Generally, for the six counties, the number of incidents reported rose from 29 during the month of May to 37 during the month of June: a 27.6% increase. This scenario calls for increasing cooperation among state duty-bearers, community actors, and non-state actors in order to mitigate growing threats mainly in urban centers such as Mombasa and semi-urban areas in Kilifi and Kwale. Climate-related alerts also call for stronger integration of environmental early warning within conflict prevention mechanisms in the region.

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