BIWEEKLY CONFLICT BRIEF FOR EALY WARNING EARLY RESPONSE DATED 2ND AUGUST TO 12TH AUGUST 2021
1.0 KEY ISSUES FOR THIS PERIOD
During this period, KECOSCE’s EWER system received a total of 14 reports. The main issues of concern for the first two weeks was the increase of illegal gangs’ activities in Mombasa. The map below shows type of conflicts reported.
2.0 PREVIOUS MONTH’S CONFLICT BRIEF UPDATE.
By end of July 2021, Kenya Community Support Centre received a total of 34 reports disseminated into its Early Warning Early Response System. This was an 88% percent increase compared to the record in June. Whereas in the first half of August, a total of 14 incidents were recorded into the EWER system. This was a 7.69 % increase compared to the second half of July. You can follow the reports on https://kecosces.ushahidi.io/views/map.
The following summarizes key early warning issues highlighted from the incident reports received in the first half of August, 2021.
- Juvenile gangs are becoming more violent with tendencies of revenge and the proof of superiority in the region.
- National political rallies held in Mvita, Mombasa County could be possible cause of regional and ethnic profiling. President Uhuru Kenyatta’s speech in Mombasa on 10th August was ruled by utterances of the invited guests uniting in order to defeat his deputy William Ruto.
- The number of reported land ownership and evictions increasing indiscriminately in Mombasa. Tana River County is still experiencing resource based conflicts.
- Water scarcity in Mombasa was reported in Bagladesh, Changamwe. This popmtd the residents to take to the streets to express their concern. The act caused a heavy traffic jam that saw more than a hundred motorists stranded in the area.
Mombasa County was the most volatile in the region with high insecurity incidents during July. It reported most indicators of violence. During this month, the county is still the most volatile in the region.
2.0 CONFLICT PREDICTION TABLE
| PREDICTION OF EVENTS IN JULY | JUSTIFICATION | EVENTS REPORTED FROM 1ST -12TH AUGUST |
| Illegal gangs in Kisauni | Kisauni sub county has been a hotspot for illegal gangs for a long time. | 1 incident of illegal gang activity was reported from Mshomoroni, Kisauni. |
| Land conflicts in Kisauni | The area has high influx of squatters and has had several incidents of land related conflicts. | 1 incident where residents residing on a 22.4 acre piece of land were evicted in Utange, Kisauni |
| Land conflicts in Tana River with special emphasis on pastoralists and Farmers. | The pastoralists and farmers of Tana River have been in conflict with one another over Tana Delta’s grazing and farming fields. | 2 incidences of resource based conflicts were reported in within Tana River County. |
3.0 POLITICAL UPDATES IN THE COAST
Political Conflicts Update in Mombasa
Governor Joho succession politics intensifies.
As governor Joho is set to retire in 2022, his succession battle is intensifying in Mombasa as he remains silent on who he will endorse to be his successor among his contenders; his deputy William Kingi, his 2017 rival turned acquaintance Suleiman Shahbal and his lifelong friend and Mvita MP Abdulswamad Sharriff Nassir. The three are rumored to be banking on the ODM party ticket.
The national political arena was organized in Mombasa between President Uhuru Kenyatta, the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) proponents and his political ally Hon. Raila Odinga in Mvita. The conversation was clouded with heated plans to unite against a common proclaimed political nemesis William Ruto