Executive Summary

The party nominations are over and nomination certificates have been issued to the candidates. However, the whole exercise has left division among people (both aspirants and voters) specifically those displeased with the outcome. The cancellation of primaries and narrowing down of aspirants to permit consensus significantly increased the risk of political party conflicts in the coast region. Speculators say the outcome of the nomination is threatening to weaken the ODM grasp on its strongholds. Kilifi for instance, now has two strong gubernatorial aspirants from PAA and UDA who threaten to overthrow the reign of ODM. In Kwale, there are supremacy battles on who should have been given the ODM tickets. These has been manifested on social media and on-the-ground conversations KECOSCE is monitoring. Some members have threatened to ditch coalitions and political parties (Francis Baya ditched ODM for UDA). Kingi’s PAA has expressed interest to call off the deal with Azimio One Kenya Alliance over what it terms as undisclosed contents of the deal.

KECOSCE’s Early Warning System during the week monitored electoral events both face to face/offline and online. The operation of criminal gangs in the coast region continues to increase the risk of perpetrated electoral violence. Key issues during this period were political, criminal, Gender-based violence and climate change impacts manifestation.

Political conversations in Mombasa changed this week with the entry into the gubernatorial seat by the former Nairobi governor Mike Mbuvi Sonko and mounting pressure on Suleiman Shabhal by his supporters to stand as an independent candidate.

A total of 25 events were reported during this one week. The reports were disaggregated into the following categories

1. 11 political violence,
2. 10 criminal gang attacks,
3. 1 Gender-based violence
4. 1 incident of climate change conflict,
5. 1 police corruption and misuse of office
6. 1 event of a terror incident

Out of the total number of events, Political violence accounted for 42%, Criminal gangs/militia group activities 38%, Gender-based violence, Terror events, and police corruption and misuse of office accounted for 4% each. While Climate change impacts accounted for 8%.

A FOCUS ON COUNTY VOLATILITY AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK PREDICTION

In response to the emerging electoral issues as Kenya gears itself to the August 2022 elections, KECOSCE has put in place mechanisms to respond to electoral conflicts and indicators of perpetrated violence in the coast region. This will be achieved through coordination and collaboration of peace structures as well the security agencies. We are in the process of engaging peace committees, nyumba Kumi and the community policing on electoral preparedness and response to emerging electoral conflicts linking them to the early warning system for timely dissemination of early warning information to the target actors for action.

Part of the analysis shall continue to focus on the number and type of events as well as actors responsible for committing such offenses.

During this week, we received a total of 11 political violence incidences across the six counties of the Coast region. Out of the six counties, Kilifi has a high risk of conflict. This was attributed to unresolved party nomination conflicts as well as undisclosed political deals between individual parties and coalitions. This has been manifested through withdrawal of partnerships from one party and coalition to the other.

In Tana River conflicts escalated by more than 90% during this week as predicted in the previous brief. This may be attributed to the widespread fear amongst the communities on what they call (kumi kumi).

Response; CSOs including KECOSCE responded to these threats through community dialogues and sensitization meetings at Caritas in Garsen which will help to neutralize the threat.

The ongoing drought is threatening ethnic cohesion in Tana River as reported conflicts have shown tendencies of escalating the socio-economic conflicts. The impact of climate change mainly drought/floods/heat has seen thousands of livestock starve to death. This has made the affected pastoral community vulnerable to the point some of them are in desperate need of food which has left them with no other choice but to steal livestock from the less affected communities.

As the elections draw near, Malindi and Chonyi residents in Kilifi County are attributing the high risk of perpetrated electoral violence to a new surge in the supply and abuse of drug and substance abuse in these territories.

COUNTY VOLATILITY THIS WEEK

1. Kilifi County was the most volatile this week. It reported most events with high risk of electoral conflicts. The events were characterized with perpetrated violence against innocent civilians as well as well increase in the pull/push factors that are projected to increase youths’ vulnerability to motivated crime such as drug and substance abuse.
2. Political party conflicts continued to manifest in Kilifi and Taita Taveta. The nominations outcome was not welcomed by many. Some resorted to change teams. 3 aggrieved aspirants defected from one party to another. Brenda Bendera and Francis Baya decamped from Pan African Alliance party and ODM to UDA respectively. While Mwatate MP Andrew Mwadime resigned from the Communist Party of Kenya to ODM.
3. Mombasa and Tana River remain at moderate with medium number of political conflicts reported mainly characterized with indoor propaganda and pressure from supporters on their political leaders pushing them to vie despite the outcome of the nominations. However, these events did not pose a serious threat to the electoral security.
4. Lamu, Kwale and Taita Taveta remained calm with minimum average of 1 incident reported during the week.
5. Kilifi County is on the watch list in the coming week. This is partly attributed to supremacy war between Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and party Pan African Alliance (PAA). The PAA is seen as a threat to ODM specifically because the county has been its stronghold for many electoral periods. Now that PAA has written to the registrar of political parties to be delisted from Azimio One Kenya Alliance, a risk of high political pressure is expected.
6. One event of Gender Based Violence was reported in Malindi. A hearing involving a special case 14-year old Sir Ali primary school was postponed due her mental illness. Defilement perpetrators are now targeting mentally unstable victims.

ATTACKS BY MILITIA GROUPS ON CIVILIANS:

The crime rate decreased by 40% this week compared to last week. A total of 10 events (compared to 14 for last week) by criminal gangs were reported. Mombasa is still the most affected with 50%, followed by Kilifi with 40% and Kwale with 10%. Lamu, Tana River and Taita Taveta remained fairly peaceful.

6 suspects of an organized criminal group dubbed ‘Panga Boys’ were apprehended in Mombasa. 5 were arrested in Mjambere ward in Kisauni while one (1) who is 20-year old and the ring leader was arrested in Likoni.

1. Criminal gangs attacked and robbed an expectant mother of her phone and cash of 50 shillings on her way to Mwahima hospital in Likoni. The woman sustained a deep head wounds and was rushed Mwahima medical clinic for treatment. The incident occurred around Tongenyama area.
2. Criminal gangs clashed in Shella ward. 2 youths, a 27-year old woman and a 21-year old man were injured during the clashes that occurred in Watamu and Shella Majengo.
3. The threat of killings for the elders in Kilifi continue to loom. However, the risk shifted from Malindi sub county to Rabai where 2 women, a 56-year old and her daughter aged 18 were attacked by thugs on allegations of witchcraft. The daughter was reportedly injured while preventing the criminals from killing her mother.
4. 6 thugs are on the security actors’ radar in Nyali over increased incidents of theft. his is after 1 of them was cornered and forced to reveal his accomplices before he was lynched at Bashir area in Nyali.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISRUPTED LIVELIHOODS

Kilifi and Taita Taveta continue to stare at starvation and suffering. More than 15 acres of maize have been wiped out by the invasive armyworm. Now, farmers fear that if the pest won’t be controlled it will spread to other areas which would lead to food insecurity in the county. Severe cases of the armyworm attacked was reported in Mwakuhenga village, Mnarani ward, Kilifi North.

Though rains were recorded in Idsowe, Tana River, the effects of ravaging drought continue to manifest. Pastoralists are not only worried about the loss of their livestock due to drought but also must worry about theft of the remaining stock. 2 bulls’ worth at about Kshs. 120,000 were stolen and their remains were discovered along River Tana at Dokotu near Ozi.

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