Executive Summary

Having been mapped as a region of high risk of political violence in Kenya, the coast region continues to experience perpetrated electoral violence in various counties manifested through different conflicts. With over 1.9 Million eligible voters, it is attracting the so called 2 horses in the race. During this week, it was deputy president William Ruto’s turn to tour the region. Speculators say the tour is a move to counter the mileage gained by ODM leaders and his nemesis Raila Odinga when he made a tour earlier on. The campaigns continue to be dramatic if not chaotic. On Saturday 25th, Mombasa residents were hesitant in attending the Deputy President’s rally at Tononoka grounds after preliminary rumors indicated that chaos would erupt as the county government officials were accused of plotting a disruption of the much-awaited rally in the coast region dubbed the Ukombozi which can slightly translate to the redemption rally. This was manifested when the organizers had to delay the event for over two hours as they waited for more people to stream in. The aftermath of the event was linked to the attack metered on the Nyali constituency CDF building that houses the Nyali MP’s office and the destruction vandalism of various posters in Nyali and Kisauni.

The second MCA assembly was adjourned in some coastal counties including Mombasa. The performance of these MCAs on the ground reveals whether they accomplished what they were elected for. For those seeking another term they must present a good track record and a consolidated set manifesto to win over the hearts of the residents. Those who were unable to deliver are now blaming the executive county government for their underperformance. For instance, in Mombasa, Athman Shebe of Jomvu Kuu ward says the governor could not facilitate his projects as he was discriminated against because he stood by the truth. Also, the war against drug and substance abuse has become complicated in the region. The drug abuse menace has become deeply rooted in society such that every effort to mitigate and prevent it from spreading has become futile. Drugs are being smuggled and abused in schools and along the streets, especially in Mombasa and Malindi towns. Now, the NACADA regional coordinator Mr. Gorge Karisa has called for joint efforts through Civil Society Organizations in deescalating this menace, especially in schools.

In Kilifi, 2 concerned citizens filed a petition seeking to bar Aisha Jumwa from vying for the governor seat for lack of a degree certificate. The case has been moved from Mombasa to Malindi high Court for hearing though the IEBC had earlier own demanded that the case be decided by IRBC Disputes Resolution Committee. Residents of Malindi have reacted differently to the pending petition. 60% percent of the comments monitored indicate a lack of confidence in the court system to independently deliver a fair ruling. They are skeptical that the decision might be influenced since Jumwa has a lot of influence in Malindi. They predetermine that the case will be dismissed and Jumwa will be on the ballot. While 40 percent indicate that they are ready for any outcome.

In Tana Delta, there is high tension. Ethnic tension is the talk of CSOs and other peace and security actors as they race against time to pacify the situation before election day. Incidents of animosity are being reported from various locations. They are partially being fueled by political conflicts which are shaping along ethnic lines. Pressure groups and factions have formed to protect their territories in Galili and Salama locations. In the past one week, at least 15 goats and 2 cows have been stolen and slaughtered by alleged Pokomo youths in Salama location. This has now seen the neighboring pastoral communities form retaliatory gangs which are reportedly attacking residents on the road.

KECOSCE’s Early Warning System during the week monitored electoral events both face-to-face/offline and online. Political conflicts in the coast region of Kenya decreased by 58%. During this week, our KEWER recorded events on political issues, juvenile gang activities, gender based violence, police harassment, and resource based or climate change issues from the coast.

A total of 25 events were reported during this one week (24% decrease). These reports were disaggregated into the following categories

• 12 political violence incidents
• 6 criminal gang events.
• 1 case of GBV
• 5 events on climate change impacts.

Activity over Time

Out of the total number of events, Political violence accounted for 48%, Criminal gangs/militia group activities 24%, reported Gender Based Violence accounted for 4%, while climate change impacts and disruption of livelihoods accounted for 20%. Police harassment was reported for the second consecutive week at 4%.

A FOCUS ON COUNTY VOLATILITY AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK PREDICTION

During this week, the electoral key issues raised were criminal activities, drug and substance abuse, destruction of campaign materials, spread of propaganda of distrust, police harassment, attack on political aspirants, and looming inter-ethnic clashes.

RESPONSE TO ELECTORAL VIOLENCE OVER THE WEEK.

KECOSCE attended the multispectral committee on electoral preparedness and mitigation of Mombasa and Kilifi counties where various CSOs shared their best practices and weaknesses in the electoral preparedness and mitigation of conflicts as we approach the election day. The sharing was instrumental as it enabled the exchange of ideas among peace actors to strengthen the response to political violence in the coast region of Kenya.

Secondly, in efforts to revamp the Early Warning Early Response system, KECOSCE supported the 3 conflict monitors deployed to monitor and highlight key online electoral issues to facilitate targeted response and mitigation. During this week they were able to focus on disinformation as a major issue of concern as the country gears towards the August polls. To respond to disinformation, the team crafted accurate messages to counter the misinformation that is currently rampant in the online space that is marred with propaganda of distrust.

The risk of violence

During this week, we received a total of 12 electoral conflict incidences across the six counties of the Coast region. Out of the six counties, Tana River maintained the lead with a high electoral risk conflict accounting for 33% (risk rate decreased by 9%), Kilifi and Mombasa accounted for 25% each. While Lamu and Kwale recorded 8% of the total political events reported each. Taita Taveta was relatively peaceful.

COUNTY VOLATILITY THIS WEEK

1. Tana River county was the most volatile. The county has a high risk of experiencing political violence with several factors coming in to play if proactive measures are not taken. Incidences of inter-ethnic clashes are looming over Tana Delta.
2. There is increased drug and substance abuse among the learners in schools in Mombasa county. This is according to NACADA coast regional coordinator. Matatu operators and poor parentage are blamed for this menace. The schools most affected include Makupa, Tudor Day, Tononoka Secondary, Sereni, and Nyali schools.
3. There is a high risk of ethnic clashes in the Tana Delta. The area is occupied by many ethnic groups hence security is sensitive in this region. 4 incidences demonstrated a high risk of ethnic animosity in Tana River. Pastoralists accused local brewer consumers of stealing their livestock, selling and getting drunk with the money (in the Mwina location)
4. 3 brothers are being sought by the police to answer to an assault of a non-local casual worker from upcountry at Garsen grounds in Tana Delta. While in the Sera location, elders have called for peaceful prayers in response to the growing ethnic tension. These are being manifested through political intolerance events.
5. Also, political races in Tana River seem to be shaping along the ethnic lines and the intra-ethnic battles for supremacy among individual communities especially for MCA positions have increased further the risk of communal division.
6. 4 KEWER reports indicate an escalation in the incidences of electoral violence in the coast region of Kenya. There are incidences of the destruction of campaign materials believed to be motivated by unhealthy rivalry among competitors. This was reported in the Nyali constituency (Kadzandani) and Kisauni (Bombolulu and Bakarani). While in Tana Delta, such incidences were reported in Garsen town (Twalib Abdalla launched a complaint about the destruction of his posters)
7. There is extreme political tension in Mombasa over the alleged involvement of senior security agencies in partisan politics. The senior county officials are being accused of taking sides in politics as well as the subsequent attacks and raids against certain politicians. During this week, Nyali MP alleged that his offices were raided at night in a politically motivated incident.
8. Fights over billboards have erupted in Mombasa. Former Nyali MP Hezron Awiti, UDA aspirants, and independent candidates claim that they have been denied space to place their billboards in Mombasa county.
9. Political manipulation and bribery are also evident. Incidences where stage mange rallies through bribery of youths were reported in Garsen.
10. Apart from propaganda, incitement and inflammatory language use in the media space, the internet is also being used as a tool to spread misinform the public with an intention to influence their choices come August polls. Politicians are investing in enhancing their image and appeal to to the social media users. Some are booting their reputation while others are deconstructing their opponents in order to influence the decisions of the voters.

ATTACKS BY MILITIA GROUPS ON CIVILIANS

The rate of crime increased by 40%. There was a shift in the hot spot areas as some of the locations which enjoyed significant peace recorded crime during this week. A total of 6 events (compared to 4 last week) of criminal gangs were reported. There is a resurgence of criminal gangs in Mombasa as perpetrated electoral violence events continue to be reported. It accounted for 50% of reports received. Kilifi, Kwale, and Tana River accounted for 16.7 % each. Lamu remained presumably calm.

During the week police patrols were reported in most parts of Malindi Town to enhance security as reported by various peace monitors. From the events monitored, the following can be deducted;

1. There is a rise in smuggling and abuse of alcohol and substances in the coast region across all population groups. However, this week, abuse among teenagers was a concern during the commemoration of the International Day Against Drug and Substance abuse. Several schools affected were mapped.
2. In Malindi, reports received imply the presence of a drug den in the Maweni area in Shella ward where drug smuggling is rampant.
3. There is looming insecurity in the Mtopanga area in the Nyali constituency. It is majorly characterized by hacking and robbery. This is after 2 people were hacked in Nyali on the night of 24/6/2022.
4. Criminals are now using school uniforms to rob residents in Kisauni. 2 residents, a man and a woman were attacked and robbed on the morning of 29/6/2022 by 3 criminals wearing secondary school uniforms.
5. Security officials have raised concern over the increase in online theft by con artists occasioned by a lack of employment. A report read by KECOSCE indicates that criminals publish fake and enticing job offers online as well as through normal calls, SMS, and emails to targeted victims. They then persuade the desperate ones and by asking them to send money in order to book interviews or any other such claims meant to milk money and personal details from residents. Youths and the women are the biggest victims.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISRUPTED LIVELIHOODS

Impacts of climate change continue to affect the residents in the coastal region of Kenya. This is being manifested through shortage of food and water. The price of food has also gone up and many residents are struggling to make the ends meet. This has seen some residents indulge in illegal activities to earn a living.

1. In Tana River, conflicts have escalated. Some residents have begun stealing livestock in order to put food on their table. In the past one week, 15 sheep and 2 cows have been stolen and slaughtered in Salama location by Pokomo youths. This has sparked tension as the neighboring pastoral communities have reportedly created a pressure group to retaliate against the acts committed by the Pokomo. The gang has however gone on a rampage as the residents have raised security concern following the move by the gang to target innocent civilians on their normal errands. This is expected to escalate as the country gears towards the general election and the pressure groups may increase the tendency to be utilized as tools for perpetrated electoral violence.
2. Illegal poaching is being conducted in national reserves. This is being driven by both the value of the wildlife products as well as lack of awareness on the importance of the wildlife to the national heritage.
3. 2 youths were arrested by the police in Kwale after they were caught in possession of a pangolin, which is an endangered species on the continent.

Most residents are optimistic after the government announced a decrease in the price of maize flour which is a staple food.

POLICE HARASSMENT EVENTS.

In Lamu, reports received by the EWER system indicate that there is a growing rift between the state law enforcement agencies and the community members which may become a hurdle in the transfer of critical security intelligence during this electoral period. This follows complaints by pastoral communities of security harassment occasioned by frequent raids on their homes at night. They are now calling upon the government to reinforce security in their area during this electoral period

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